Dating problem probability
" This proportion is about the same as other years — such as 2004 — in which polls showed a fairly close race, although one candidate (in that case, George W. While, unlike the LA Times poll, the ANES did not ask voters to estimate the probability of Clinton winning, it did ask voters a follow-up question about whether they expected the election to be close or thought one of the candidates would “win by quite a bit.” Only 20 percent of respondents predicted a Clinton landslide, and only 7 percent expected a Trump landslide.Instead, almost three-quarters of voters correctly predicted a close outcome. We (Oath) and our partners need your consent to access your device, set cookies, and use your data, including your location, to understand your interests, provide relevant ads and measure their effectiveness.Oath will also provide relevant ads to you on our partners' products.It depends on whether you’re talking about how the media and other political elites read the polls — and how that influenced their behavior — or how the general public did.
The survey was conducted from early September through the election, so it captures periods in which Clinton had both smaller and larger leads.
A knowledgeable reader would, probably, note that this is a program (albeit deterministic) and not the computer that does the random number simulation. It's me and not your computer to blame if the simulation below does not exactly produce random numbers.